Black Friday: De DO's en DON'Ts voor successvolle retailers
Wat de data van PFM uit bijna 400 winkelcentra onthult over hoe retailers piekdruk kunnen beheren en het Black Friday-verkeer effectiever kunnen omzetten.
Alberto Rodríguez Pariente, Data Analyst
11 nov 2025
Black Friday is one of those retail moments that feels electric across the estate, a day (or increasingly, a few days) when shopping centres, streets, stores and tills all race faster than usual. In almost 400 shopping centres, our sensors and behavioural analytics show a recurring pattern: a big swell of visitors, rising customer expectations and acute pressure on staffing and operations between late morning and mid-afternoon. Success during this period isn’t just about markdowns; it’s about how you manage people, space and offers so that service stays strong and margins hold up.
The DOs below come from what our data indicates worked across multiple seasons and what we see in real time when a location is under stress. The DON’Ts are the pitfalls that repeatedly erode profit and morale if left unchecked.
The DOs
Align staff to the footfall forecast: In almost 400 locations and more than 35 million people counted last year, the main uplift compared to the previous week happens between 11:00 and 16:00. Schedule your experienced people and floaters for those hours so service quality doesn’t dip when traffic peaks.What this means for our clients
Stage promotions across multiple days: Spreading offers keeps shoppers engaged and reduces the all-or-nothing bottleneck of a single big day, which often pushes down conversion as overwhelmed customers browse but don’t buy.
Use real-time footfall for live decisions: Forecasts shape the plan, but real-time data dictates the fixes: redeploy staff, open extra tills, or run a flash offer in a busy zone. These live moves materially improve conversion during spikes.
Optimise layout and queue lengths: With LiDAR tech we can map dwell times and chokepoints. Small layout tweaks and clearer queuing flow increase purchase intent and reduce lost sales from frustration. If you want to explore how LiDAR has helped others lift conversion, we’d be happy to chat.
These DOs aren’t theoretical. Our behavioural analytics and in-store counts show that timing, staffing and quick operational responses are the levers that convert traffic into margin especially when the overall retail backdrop is uncertain
The DON’Ts
Don’t assume Black Friday always sits in the same week: Timing varies year to year (week 47 in 2022 and 2023 but week 48 in 2024 and 2025) and that shift affects how sales bleed into December, so be careful when you compare year-on-year results.
Don’t over discount everything: Heavy discounts teach shoppers to wait for sales and erode gross profit. Instead, use targeted discounts (new customer incentives, loyalty accelerators) and short, flash deals that stimulate extra spend without permanently resetting expectations.
Don’t ignore staff wellbeing: Understaffed shifts mean longer queues, more mistakes and a hit to both customer experience and conversion. Real time adjustments and balanced shifts protect both morale and revenue.
Don’t measure only visits: High footfall is only valuable if it converts. Our analyses repeatedly show crowded stores with low conversion burn marketing and staffing budgets without delivering true ROI. Track sales and margin per visitor, not only bodies through the door.
Weaker December
Looking at the macro picture, ONS and CBS figures for end-of-year months across recent seasons suggest December can be a weak spot in some recent years which means squeezing value from every visitor is crucial.
Retail Surprises
But retail surprises happen, Reuters recently reported an unexpected rise in UK retail sales in September 2025, a reminder that consumer behaviour can pivot and opportunities can appear fast. Reuters
Importantly, our data shows that a footfall uplift of more than 10% is not as common as expected, more than half of locations did not see increases over 10%. That distribution matters: headline double-digit spikes are the exception, not the rule, so prioritise conversion, average-transaction value and operational resilience and have a plan ready for the rare occasions when traffic does surge.
Focus on conversion
Put simply, plan for a cautious close to the year but stay nimble. In almost 400 locations we see that teams who combine forecasts with real time adjustments, targeted promotions and an obsessive focus on conversion consistently protect margin and lift customer.
Black Friday is one of those retail moments that feels electric across the estate, a day (or increasingly, a few days) when shopping centres, streets, stores and tills all race faster than usual. In almost 400 shopping centres, our sensors and behavioural analytics show a recurring pattern: a big swell of visitors, rising customer expectations and acute pressure on staffing and operations between late morning and mid-afternoon. Success during this period isn’t just about markdowns; it’s about how you manage people, space and offers so that service stays strong and margins hold up.
The DOs below come from what our data indicates worked across multiple seasons and what we see in real time when a location is under stress. The DON’Ts are the pitfalls that repeatedly erode profit and morale if left unchecked.
The DOs
Align staff to the footfall forecast: In almost 400 locations and more than 35 million people counted last year, the main uplift compared to the previous week happens between 11:00 and 16:00. Schedule your experienced people and floaters for those hours so service quality doesn’t dip when traffic peaks.What this means for our clients
Stage promotions across multiple days: Spreading offers keeps shoppers engaged and reduces the all-or-nothing bottleneck of a single big day, which often pushes down conversion as overwhelmed customers browse but don’t buy.
Use real-time footfall for live decisions: Forecasts shape the plan, but real-time data dictates the fixes: redeploy staff, open extra tills, or run a flash offer in a busy zone. These live moves materially improve conversion during spikes.
Optimise layout and queue lengths: With LiDAR tech we can map dwell times and chokepoints. Small layout tweaks and clearer queuing flow increase purchase intent and reduce lost sales from frustration. If you want to explore how LiDAR has helped others lift conversion, we’d be happy to chat.
These DOs aren’t theoretical. Our behavioural analytics and in-store counts show that timing, staffing and quick operational responses are the levers that convert traffic into margin especially when the overall retail backdrop is uncertain
The DON’Ts
Don’t assume Black Friday always sits in the same week: Timing varies year to year (week 47 in 2022 and 2023 but week 48 in 2024 and 2025) and that shift affects how sales bleed into December, so be careful when you compare year-on-year results.
Don’t over discount everything: Heavy discounts teach shoppers to wait for sales and erode gross profit. Instead, use targeted discounts (new customer incentives, loyalty accelerators) and short, flash deals that stimulate extra spend without permanently resetting expectations.
Don’t ignore staff wellbeing: Understaffed shifts mean longer queues, more mistakes and a hit to both customer experience and conversion. Real time adjustments and balanced shifts protect both morale and revenue.
Don’t measure only visits: High footfall is only valuable if it converts. Our analyses repeatedly show crowded stores with low conversion burn marketing and staffing budgets without delivering true ROI. Track sales and margin per visitor, not only bodies through the door.
Weaker December
Looking at the macro picture, ONS and CBS figures for end-of-year months across recent seasons suggest December can be a weak spot in some recent years which means squeezing value from every visitor is crucial.
Retail Surprises
But retail surprises happen, Reuters recently reported an unexpected rise in UK retail sales in September 2025, a reminder that consumer behaviour can pivot and opportunities can appear fast. Reuters
Importantly, our data shows that a footfall uplift of more than 10% is not as common as expected, more than half of locations did not see increases over 10%. That distribution matters: headline double-digit spikes are the exception, not the rule, so prioritise conversion, average-transaction value and operational resilience and have a plan ready for the rare occasions when traffic does surge.
Focus on conversion
Put simply, plan for a cautious close to the year but stay nimble. In almost 400 locations we see that teams who combine forecasts with real time adjustments, targeted promotions and an obsessive focus on conversion consistently protect margin and lift customer.
Black Friday is one of those retail moments that feels electric across the estate, a day (or increasingly, a few days) when shopping centres, streets, stores and tills all race faster than usual. In almost 400 shopping centres, our sensors and behavioural analytics show a recurring pattern: a big swell of visitors, rising customer expectations and acute pressure on staffing and operations between late morning and mid-afternoon. Success during this period isn’t just about markdowns; it’s about how you manage people, space and offers so that service stays strong and margins hold up.
The DOs below come from what our data indicates worked across multiple seasons and what we see in real time when a location is under stress. The DON’Ts are the pitfalls that repeatedly erode profit and morale if left unchecked.
The DOs
Align staff to the footfall forecast: In almost 400 locations and more than 35 million people counted last year, the main uplift compared to the previous week happens between 11:00 and 16:00. Schedule your experienced people and floaters for those hours so service quality doesn’t dip when traffic peaks.What this means for our clients
Stage promotions across multiple days: Spreading offers keeps shoppers engaged and reduces the all-or-nothing bottleneck of a single big day, which often pushes down conversion as overwhelmed customers browse but don’t buy.
Use real-time footfall for live decisions: Forecasts shape the plan, but real-time data dictates the fixes: redeploy staff, open extra tills, or run a flash offer in a busy zone. These live moves materially improve conversion during spikes.
Optimise layout and queue lengths: With LiDAR tech we can map dwell times and chokepoints. Small layout tweaks and clearer queuing flow increase purchase intent and reduce lost sales from frustration. If you want to explore how LiDAR has helped others lift conversion, we’d be happy to chat.
These DOs aren’t theoretical. Our behavioural analytics and in-store counts show that timing, staffing and quick operational responses are the levers that convert traffic into margin especially when the overall retail backdrop is uncertain
The DON’Ts
Don’t assume Black Friday always sits in the same week: Timing varies year to year (week 47 in 2022 and 2023 but week 48 in 2024 and 2025) and that shift affects how sales bleed into December, so be careful when you compare year-on-year results.
Don’t over discount everything: Heavy discounts teach shoppers to wait for sales and erode gross profit. Instead, use targeted discounts (new customer incentives, loyalty accelerators) and short, flash deals that stimulate extra spend without permanently resetting expectations.
Don’t ignore staff wellbeing: Understaffed shifts mean longer queues, more mistakes and a hit to both customer experience and conversion. Real time adjustments and balanced shifts protect both morale and revenue.
Don’t measure only visits: High footfall is only valuable if it converts. Our analyses repeatedly show crowded stores with low conversion burn marketing and staffing budgets without delivering true ROI. Track sales and margin per visitor, not only bodies through the door.
Weaker December
Looking at the macro picture, ONS and CBS figures for end-of-year months across recent seasons suggest December can be a weak spot in some recent years which means squeezing value from every visitor is crucial.
Retail Surprises
But retail surprises happen, Reuters recently reported an unexpected rise in UK retail sales in September 2025, a reminder that consumer behaviour can pivot and opportunities can appear fast. Reuters
Importantly, our data shows that a footfall uplift of more than 10% is not as common as expected, more than half of locations did not see increases over 10%. That distribution matters: headline double-digit spikes are the exception, not the rule, so prioritise conversion, average-transaction value and operational resilience and have a plan ready for the rare occasions when traffic does surge.
Focus on conversion
Put simply, plan for a cautious close to the year but stay nimble. In almost 400 locations we see that teams who combine forecasts with real time adjustments, targeted promotions and an obsessive focus on conversion consistently protect margin and lift customer.
